April Global Macro Monthly - Central banks gauge lagged effects
- 26 April 2023 (7 min read)
Key points
- Market sentiment towards banks improved over the last month as deposit flight and emergency liquidity provision in the US stabilised. We await key central bank surveys to gauge the impact on credit conditions.
- Central banks return to face the previous dilemma: continue to tighten policy despite signs of economic resilience and inflation persistence or pause to see the lagged effect of previous actions.
- A spectrum of central banks emerges. The Bank of Canada announced a “conditional” pause, while several EM central banks delivered less explicit breaks.
- The Federal Reserve and Bank of England look set to tighten further, with European Central Bank hikes expected into Q3. The Bank of Japan also looks set to gradually undo easy policy.
- Higher rates also apply pressure to sovereign issuers. The US debt ceiling is likely to impact over the summer. But other sovereigns may soon face tougher conditions.
Related documents
Our experts and investment teams outline their key convictions.
Visit the investment instituteDisclaimer
This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Asia Limited (“AXA IM HK”), an entity licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”), for general circulation and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy, sell or enter into any transactions in respect of any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal, tax or any other advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalised recommendation to buy or sell securities under any applicable law or regulation. It has been prepared without taking into account the specific personal circumstances, investment objectives, financial situation, investment knowledge or particular needs of any particular person and may be subject to change at any time without notice. Offering may be made only on the basis of the information disclosed in the relevant offering documents. Please consult independent financial or other professional advisers if you are unsure about any information contained herein.
Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee such opinions, estimates and forecasts made will come to pass. Actual results of operations and achievements may differ materially. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Information herein may be obtained from sources believed to be reliable. AXA IM HK has reasonable belief that such information is accurate, complete and up-to-date. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AXA IM HK, its affiliates, directors, officers or employees take no responsibility for the data provided by third party, including the accuracy of such data. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision. References to companies (if any) are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment recommendations or solicitations.
All investment involves risk, including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Investors should not make any investment decision based on this material alone.
Some of the services listed on this Website may not be available for offer to retail investors.
This Website has not been reviewed by the SFC. © 2023 AXA Investment Managers. All rights reserved.