January Global Macro Monthly - 2023 starts on a more positive note
- 25 January 2023 (7 min read)
Key points
- The broad shape of the outlook for 2023 remains intact: global growth looks set to slow, headline inflation should fall sharply and central banks should reach peak rates over the coming months around the world.
- Yet the start of 2023 has included a number of positive surprises, including a mild winter that could see the Euro area escape a winter recession, a faster removal of China’s ‘Zero-COVID policy’ boosting growth prospects for later in the year and a more resilient US end to 2022.
- Markets have welcomed the more positive news. However, we think it comes with risks of slowing the overall disinflation expected over the coming years and threatening the need for further or more persistent tighter monetary policy from central banks.
- Moreover, the US economy still suggests the likelihood of falling into recession this year - albeit that the timing looks more uncertain. This may cause further tensions if growth cycles occur more asynchronously this year
Related documents
Disclaimer
This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Asia Limited (“AXA IM HK”), an entity licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”), for general circulation and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy, sell or enter into any transactions in respect of any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal, tax or any other advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalised recommendation to buy or sell securities under any applicable law or regulation. It has been prepared without taking into account the specific personal circumstances, investment objectives, financial situation, investment knowledge or particular needs of any particular person and may be subject to change at any time without notice. Offering may be made only on the basis of the information disclosed in the relevant offering documents. Please consult independent financial or other professional advisers if you are unsure about any information contained herein.
Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee such opinions, estimates and forecasts made will come to pass. Actual results of operations and achievements may differ materially. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Information herein may be obtained from sources believed to be reliable. AXA IM HK has reasonable belief that such information is accurate, complete and up-to-date. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AXA IM HK, its affiliates, directors, officers or employees take no responsibility for the data provided by third party, including the accuracy of such data. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision. References to companies (if any) are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment recommendations or solicitations.
All investment involves risk, including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Investors should not make any investment decision based on this material alone.
Some of the services listed on this Website may not be available for offer to retail investors.
This Website has not been reviewed by the SFC. © 2023 AXA Investment Managers. All rights reserved.