Outlook 2024
Mid-cycle adjustment, not end-cycle crash
For 2024 we expect lower growth, lower inflation and limited interest rate easing. We expect global GDP growth will reach 2.8%, down from an expected 3.0% in 2023 but anticipate acceleration in 2025. 2024 will be significant politically with the US Presidential Election likely to be most consequential globally.
What should investors expect in 2024?
Two questions are likely to be on investors’ minds as we enter 2024 – can bonds shake off their losing streak and can equities maintain their momentum? We believe they both can. However, the prospect of better performance for bonds relative to equities is greater than in recent years. We look at what 2024 could mean for investors.
"There will only be limited scope for rate cuts until there is evidence of easing labour market pressures."
Our Investment Institute external Advisory Committee members share their expertise on the macroeconomic and climate-related opportunities and challenges for the year ahead.
US outlook
The US economy looks set to slow in 2024, though avoid recession, ahead of November’s Presidential election.
Eurozone outlook
Lacklustre growth looks set to persist against a backdrop of weaker demand and a mild rise in unemployment.
China outlook
China’s reliance on central government stimulus is delivering an unbalanced economy, and the upswings look set to fade into 2025.
UK outlook
After a tough year, the UK is expected to be on the cusp of recession in 2024, with modest growth in 2025.
Japan outlook
Japan is edging towards a turning point in its battle with deflation, though economic growth is likely to slow.
Emerging markets outlook
Softer global growth and tight financial condition are likely to prove headwinds for emerging markets in 2024.
Disclaimer
This website is published by AXA Investment Managers Asia Limited (“AXA IM HK”), an entity licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong (“SFC”), for general circulation and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment research or financial analysis relating to transactions in financial instruments, nor does it constitute on the part of AXA Investment Managers or its affiliated companies an offer to buy, sell or enter into any transactions in respect of any investments, products or services, and should not be considered as solicitation or investment, legal, tax or any other advice, a recommendation for an investment strategy or a personalised recommendation to buy or sell securities under any applicable law or regulation. It has been prepared without taking into account the specific personal circumstances, investment objectives, financial situation, investment knowledge or particular needs of any particular person and may be subject to change at any time without notice. Offering may be made only on the basis of the information disclosed in the relevant offering documents. Please consult independent financial or other professional advisers if you are unsure about any information contained herein.
Due to its simplification, this publication is partial and opinions, estimates and forecasts herein are subjective and subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee such opinions, estimates and forecasts made will come to pass. Actual results of operations and achievements may differ materially. Data, figures, declarations, analysis, predictions and other information in this publication is provided based on our state of knowledge at the time of creation of this publication. Information herein may be obtained from sources believed to be reliable. AXA IM HK has reasonable belief that such information is accurate, complete and up-to-date. To the maximum extent permitted by law, AXA IM HK, its affiliates, directors, officers or employees take no responsibility for the data provided by third party, including the accuracy of such data. This material does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision. References to companies (if any) are for illustrative purposes only and should not be viewed as investment recommendations or solicitations.
All investment involves risk, including the loss of capital. The value of investments and the income from them can fluctuate and that past performance is no guarantee of future returns, investors may not get back the amount originally invested. Investors should not make any investment decision based on this material alone.
Some of the services listed on this Website may not be available for offer to retail investors.
This Website has not been reviewed by the SFC. © 2023 AXA Investment Managers. All rights reserved.